“The Irish party system appears to be in a state of flux at the moment, but what is uncertain is whether this is a temporary situation or a 'new normal'.” My opinion is that what we experienced in the last elections will be the “new normal” and that the days of the traditional two-and-a-half party system are now definitively over. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on "Why Violent Video Games Shouldn't Be Banned"? Get an original essayHistoryIn very recent times, the Irish political system has had a traditional two and a half party system. This consisted of Fianna Fail (founded in 1926), Fine Gael (founded in 1933 after a merger between Cumann na nGaedheal, the National Center Party and the National Guard) and the Labor Party (founded in 1912). These three parties combined the vote exceeded 90% in the majority of general elections since the creation of the state. With Fianna Fail and Fine Gael together averaging over 70%. It is argued that the Labor Party, which had its worst election result in 2016, will recover, but it may still need a few more elections to achieve this. The Labor Party has the benefit of a brand and party structure that some of the smaller parties could only wish for. If the Social Democrats fail to make inroads in the next general election, a merger with Labor could be seen if both want to gain greater influence in Irish politics. These two center-left parties would have very similar ideologies, so over time they could heal their differences. As for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, both centre-right parties, my belief is that the decline in general support we have seen in recent times will not be reversed. While support for these parties will fluctuate in any given election, I cannot see a situation where combined support for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will get anywhere near 70% support again. There are many reasons behind my theory which I will go into more detail below. People's loyalty to political parties is not as strong as it was historically. For example, Fianna Fail consistently obtained between 39% and just over 50% in every general election between 1932 and 2011. This support was stable and demonstrated that, even in difficult times for the party and for country, they still retained a large number of votes. of primary voters. The same could also be said to a lesser extent for Fine Gael, where support has consistently been between 20% and 39% in every Dail election. Voter loyalty to political parties has been studied (Michael Walsh, Politics in the RoI Chapter 6). A key factor was the socio-psychological reasons why voters remain loyal to the same political party. This is where a person typically inherits a party from family members. They develop a strong bond with a particular party from an early age and the political party becomes deeply ingrained in their psyche. This is particularly relevant to Fianna Fail and is more prevalent in rural than urban areas. However, my belief is that the importance of having a strong family bond is declining and its importance has not been helped by the continued shift of internal migration. The percentage of the population living in rural areas has decreased from 68.2% in 1926 to 37.5% in 2016 (CSO Census [1]). The attitudes of the Irish have become more liberal. We saw this initially with the divorce referendum in 1995 and more recently with the same-sex marriage referendum. In the coming years the country will have to hold a series ofreferendums, including the one on the Eighth Amendment. There would be strong resistance among members of Fianna Fail & Fine Gael to any liberalization of state laws, however, the majority of the public would have more liberal views, particularly on abortion (IFPA Abortion in Ireland, 2017 [2]). .Another factor (Politics in the RoI, chapter 6, table 6.4) shows the choice of voters according to church practice in 2007. 84% of weekly Catholic voters who attend church, voted for one or 'another Fianna fails or Fine Gael. That compares to 63% of non-Catholic or irregular Catholic voters who attend church. In 1926 the percentage of Catholics in the state was 92.6% and increased to 94.9% in 1961. However, this percentage has since declined significantly and stood at 78.3% in 2016 (CSO Census [3] ). This trend is very likely to continue in the near future. This would have implications for the two main parties whose voters are overwhelmingly Catholic (although Fine Gael would be supported by large numbers of citizens of the traditional Protestant religions, Church of Ireland, Presbyterian and Methodist). The average age of people belonging to these long-standing religions (in Ireland) is much older than those of people with no religion or other non-traditional religions within the state (CSO CSO [4]). As the number of Catholics declines within the state, in theory, this should lead voters to strongly consider other parties. Another area to consider is the number of migrants arriving in Ireland in recent times. The number of Irish residents who declared that they were not Irish or were born outside the country is now close to 20% of the population (2016 census [5] and [6]). While voter registration is low for non-Irish citizens (ERSI 2016 [7]). There is no guarantee that this will remain low. More than 121,100 people applied for Irish citizenship by naturalization between 2005 and 2015 (ERSI 2016 [8]). While there appears to be no data on recent immigrants' voting intentions or nationality, this is a huge number of potential voters who would be quite new to Irish politics. There is no reason to believe that this group of people would favor any of the mainstream parties over the various other parties. The name Fianna Fail or Fine Gael would be unknown to most “New Irish”. While some might connect with the Green party or Labor due to name recognition, both have sister parties in other countries. Other people may come from countries with a traditional strong left-wing vote. Parties like Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will have to spend a lot of time and effort convincing this group to vote for them, something they may take for granted for those of white Irish ethnicity. Across Europe, the days of one-party government are less unheard of. Almost all EU countries are run by coalition governments, while a few others are led by minority governments with the support of independent or smaller parties, such as Ireland and the United Kingdom. This strengthens the influence that smaller parties have on the electorate. Smaller parties should be able to convince potential voters that they could play an important role in forming the next government. For much of the last century, this has not been the case in Ireland. For example, if you didn't want Fine Gael in government, your only other alternative was to vote Fianna Fail. As a vote for the Labor Party, it was a vote to have Fine Gael as the senior party in the ruling coalition. In 2016, for the first time, a majority of the electorate voted for parties other than Fianna Fail and.